濒危植物小溪洞杜鹃种群结构与动态特征

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2024.0324

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 小溪洞杜鹃(Rhododendron xiaoxidongense)为我国特有的珍稀濒危植物, 狭域分布于罗霄山脉中段, 种群数量稀少, 曾被评估为灭绝(EX), 其资源状况和种群结构与动态不清楚, 严重制约了该物种的保护。该研究以现存的小溪洞杜鹃种群为研究对象, 通过空间代替时间的方法得到种群龄级结构, 据此计算种群动态指数、编制静态生命表、绘制存活曲线和生存函数曲线, 分析种群结构特征与生存潜力; 运用时间序列模型预测种群未来发展趋势, 并采用聚集度指标判断种群空间分布格局, 旨在明确小溪洞杜鹃种群生存状况、发展趋势及影响种群更新的关键因子, 为其野生种群保护、管理和复壮提供科学依据。结果表明: (1) 4个小溪洞杜鹃种群龄级结构均不完整, 总体表现为中龄、成龄个体较多, 低龄及老龄个体严重不足, 属衰退型。(2)相邻龄级间的动态指数随着龄级增大呈“衰退—增长—稳定—衰退”的波动变化, 忽略外部干扰时的动态指数>考虑外部干扰时的动态指数(V′_pi) > 0, V′_pi趋近于0, 对外部干扰所承担的风险概率最大值为11.11%, 表明该种群受外部干扰风险概率高, 抗干扰能力弱。(3)期望寿命在I龄级时最大, 存活曲线为Deevey-II型。(4)死亡率和消失率曲线呈“升高—降低—升高”动态变化, 种群处于不稳定状态。(5)生存函数曲线呈现前期锐减、中期相对稳定和后期缓慢衰退的趋势, 并在较小的龄级(2.25龄)进入衰退期, 表明种群生存力较弱。(6)在未来2、4、6和8个龄级时间后, 低龄、中龄个体数减少, 成龄、老龄个体数增多, 种群面临衰退风险。(7)种群分布格局总体表现为集群分布, 但随着龄级增大聚集度减弱, 并在VII-VIII龄级时过渡到随机分布。综上所述, 种群个体数量少、分布地狭窄、抗干扰能力弱及幼苗更新困难是导致小溪洞杜鹃濒危的主要原因。建议加强小溪洞杜鹃种群的生境保护与抚育管理, 并结合野外回归和近地保护, 多途径实现种群保护与复壮。

关键词: 小溪洞杜鹃, 静态生命表, 生存函数, 时间序列预测, 空间格局, 保护策略

Abstract:

Aims Rhododendron xiaoxidongense is an endemic, rare and endangered species in China, with a narrow distribution in the central part of the Luoxiao Mountains. Rhododendron xiaoxidongense was once assessed as extinct (EX) because its habitat is extremely limited and individual numbers are so scarce that it is difficult to find in the wild. However, as details on the resource status, population structure and dynamics of the species are lacking, the conservation of this species is severely constrained. This study aims to clarify the survival status and future development trend of the population, and key factors affecting population regeneration by analyzing the structure and dynamics characteristics of the existing populations of R. xiaoxidongense, which will provide scientific basis for the conservation, management, and revitalization of wild populations.

Methods Based on the investigated parameters, the age structure of the R. xiaoxidongense population was obtained using a space-for-time substitution method. Subsequently, the dynamic index, static life table, survival curves and survival function curves of the population were determined to analyze the population structure characteristics and survival potential. The time series prediction model was employed to predict the future development trend of the population, and the aggregation degree index was used to determine the spatial distribution pattern of the population.

Important findings (1) The age structure of the four populations of R. xiaoxidongense was incomplete, with an overall trend of more middle-aged and mature individuals and a severe lack of low-aged and old individuals, and the age structure tended to be a decline type. (2) The dynamic index of adjacent age class showed a fluctuating trend of “decline—growth—stability—decline” with increasing age class, the dynamic index without external interference > the dynamic index under external disturbance (V′_pi) > 0, and V′_pi was close to 0. The maximum risk probability in response to random disturbance under external environmental interference was 11.11%, indicating that the population had a high probability of risk from external disturbance and had a very weak resistance to disturbances. (3) The life expectancy was highest at age class I, and the population survival curve tended to be Deevey-II type. (4) The mortality rate and vanish rate curves showed a dynamic pattern of “increase—decrease—increase”, which indicated the population was in an unstable state. (5) The survival function curve showed the trend of sharp decline in the early stages, relative stability in the middle stages, and slow decline in the later stages, and entered the decline phase at a relatively young age class (age class 2.25), which indicated that the population had weak viability. (6) In the future, after the 2, 4, 6, and 8 age classes, the number of low and middle-aged individuals in the population would decrease, in contrast, the number of adult and old individuals would increase, indicating that the population will face a risk of decline. (7) The overall spatial pattern of the population was clumped distribution, but the degree of aggregation decreased with increasing age class, transitioning to a random distribution in age classes VII-VIII. In summary, the small population size, narrow distribution range, low resistance to external disturbance, and difficulty in seedling regeneration are the main factors leading to the endangered status of the R. xiaoxidongense. We suggest strengthening habitat protection and tending management of the R. xiaoxidongense population, and achieving population conservation and revitalization through multiple approaches, including wild reintroduction and near situ conservation.

Key words: Rhododendron xiaoxidongense, static life table, survival function, time series prediction, spatial pattern, conservation strategies

李晓花, 刘杰, 李丹丹, 张乐华. 濒危植物小溪洞杜鹃种群结构与动态特征. 植物生态学报, 2025, 49(11): 1844-1857. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2024.0324

LI Xiao-Hua, LIU Jie, LI Dan-Dan, ZHANG Le-Hua. Population structure and dynamic characteristics of the endangered plant Rhododendron xiaoxidongense. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2025, 49(11): 1844-1857. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2024.0324

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.17521/cjpe.2024.0324

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2025/V49/I11/1844

图/表 11

图1 不同样地小溪洞杜鹃种群的龄级结构。I, DBH ≤ 2.5 cm; II, 2.5 cm < DBH ≤5.0 cm; III, 5.0 cm < DBH ≤ 7.5 cm; IV, 7.5 cm < DBH ≤ 10.0 cm; V, 10.0 cm < DBH ≤ 12.5 cm; VI, 12.5 cm < DBH ≤ 15.0 cm; VII, 15.0 cm < DBH ≤ 17.5 cm; VIII, 17.5 cm < DBH ≤ 20cm; IX, DBH > 20.0 cm。DBH, 胸径。DYNC, 大院农场; TYD, 桃源洞; XJXA, 小江西坳; ZGT, 赵公亭。

Fig. 1 Age structure of Rhododendron xiaoxidongense populations in different plots. I, DBH ≤ 2.5 cm; II, 2.5 cm < DBH ≤ 5.0 cm; III, 5.0 cm < DBH ≤ 7.5 cm; IV, 7.5 cm < DBH ≤ 10.0 cm; V, 10.0 cm < DBH ≤ 12.5 cm; VI, 12.5 cm < DBH ≤ 15.0 cm; VII, 15.0 cm < DBH ≤ 17.5 cm; VIII, 17.5 cm < DBH ≤ 20 cm; IX, DBH > 20.0 cm. DBH, diameter at breast height. DYNC, Dayuan Nongchang; TYD, Taoyuandong; XJXA, Xiaojiangxi’ao; ZGT, Zhaogongting.

图2 不同样地小溪洞杜鹃种群的高度级结构。H1, H ≤ 2.0 m; H2, 2.0 m < H ≤ 3.0 m; H3, 3.0 m < H ≤ 4.0 m; H4, 4.0 m < H ≤ 5.0 m; H5, 5.0 m < H ≤ 6.0 m; H6, 6.0 m < H ≤ 7.0 m; H7, H > 7.0 m。H, 株高。样地代号见图1。

Fig. 2 Height class structure of Rhododendron xiaoxidongense populations in different plots. H1, H ≤ 2.0 m; H2, 2.0 m < H ≤ 3.0 m; H3, 3.0 m < H ≤ 4.0 m; H4, 4.0 m < H ≤ 5.0 m; H5, 5.0 m < H ≤ 6.0 m; H6, 6.0 m < H ≤ 7.0 m; H7, H > 7.0 m. H, height. Plot code see Fig. 1.

表1 不同样地小溪洞杜鹃种群的龄级结构动态指数

Table 1 Age structure dynamic indices of Rhododendron xiaoxidongense populations in different plots

龄级 Age class	动态指数级 Dynamic index class	动态指数 Dynamic index value (%)
龄级 Age class	动态指数级 Dynamic index class	总种群 Total population	XJXA	ZGT	TYD	DYNC
I-II	V₁	-40.79	60.00	-44.44	-83.33	-27.78
II-III	V₂	-35.53	0.00	-35.19	16.67	-50.00
III-IV	V₃	32.89	-100.00	46.30	-33.33	38.89
IV-V	V₄	52.63	100.00	44.44	100.00	27.78
V-VI	V₅	7.89	0.00	7.41	-16.67	16.67
VI-VII	V₆	5.26	0.00	1.85	0.00	16.67
VII-VIII	V₇	0.00	0.00	0.00	16.67	-5.56
VIII-IX	V₈	-1.32	-40.00	0.00	0.00	5.56
	V_pi	13.31	85.00	33.33	15.61	11.54
	V'_pi	1.48	4.72	3.70	1.73	1.28

图3 小溪洞杜鹃种群的存活曲线。ln lx, 标准化存活对数。龄级见图1。

Fig. 3 Survival curve of Rhododendron xiaoxidongense population. ln lx, logaritthmic standard living number. Age class as defined in Fig. 1.

表2 小溪洞杜鹃种群存活曲线的检验模型

Table 2 Test models of survival curves of Rhododendron xiaoxidongense population

存活曲线 Survival curve	拟合模型 Fitting model	拟合结果 Fitting results	R²	F	p
Deevey-II	N_x = N₀e^-^bx	N_x = 8.6644e^-0.124^x	0.949 9	133.000	0.000
Deevey-III	N_x = N₀x^-^b	N_x = 8.5723x^-0.429	0.750 4	21.044	0.003

图4 小溪洞杜鹃种群死亡率(qx)和消失率(Kx)曲线。龄级见图1。

Fig. 4 Curves of mortality rate (qx) and vanish rate (Kx) of Rhododendron xiaoxidongense population. Age class as defined in Fig. 1.

表3 小溪洞杜鹃种群静态生命表

Table 3 Static life table of Rhododendron xiaoxidongense populations

龄级 Age class	径级 DBH class (cm)	A_x	a_x	l_x	ln l_x	d_x	q_x	L_x	T_x	e_x	K_x	S_x
I	DBH ≤ 2.5 cm	18	74	1 000	6.91	230	0.23	885	2 419	2.42	0.26	0.77
II	2.5 cm < DBH ≤ 5.0 cm	49	57	770	6.65	216	0.28	662	1 534	1.99	0.33	0.72
III	5.0 cm < DBH ≤ 7.5 cm	76	41	554	6.32	216	0.39	446	872	1.57	0.49	0.61
IV	7.5 cm < DBH ≤ 10.0 cm	51	25	338	5.82	216	0.64	230	426	1.26	1.02	0.36
V	10.0 cm < DBH ≤ 12.5 cm	11	9	122	4.80	68	0.56	88	196	1.61	0.81	0.44
VI	12.5 cm < DBH ≤ 15.0 cm	5	4	54	3.99	14	0.25	47	108	2.00	0.29	0.75
VII	15.0 cm < DBH ≤ 17.5 cm	1	3	41	3.70	14	0.33	34	61	1.50	0.41	0.67
VIII	17.5 cm < DBH ≤ 20 cm	1	2	27	3.30	14	0.50	20	27	1.00	0.69	0.50
IX	DBH > 20.0 cm	2	1	14	2.60	14	1.00	7	7	0.50	1.60	0.00

图5 小溪洞杜鹃种群生存率(Si)和累积死亡率(Fi)曲线。龄级划分见图1。

Fig. 5 Curves of survival rate (Si) and cumulative mortality rate (Fi) of Rhododendron xiaoxidongense population. Age class as defined in Fig. 1.

图6 小溪洞杜鹃种群死亡密度(fx)和危险率(λx)曲线。龄级见图1。

Fig. 6 Curves of mortality density (fx) and hazard rate (λx) of Rhododendron xiaoxidongense population. Age class as defined in Fig. 1.

图7 小溪洞杜鹃种群数量动态的时间序列预测。M0, 当前时间实际存活数; M2、M4、M6、M8分别为经过2、4、6和8个龄级时间后种群各龄级的个体数预测值。龄级见图1。

Fig. 7 Time series prediction of age structure dynamics of Rhododendron xiaoxidongense population. M0, number of actual survivors in present time; M2, M4, M6, M8, the predicted population size of every age class after 2, 4, 6, 8 age class time, respectively. Age class as defined in Fig. 1.

表4 小溪洞杜鹃种群不同龄级的空间分布格局

Table 4 Spatial distribution pattern of Rhododendron xiaoxidongense population at different age class

龄级 Age class	均值 Mean	方差 Variance	C	t	I	M^*	PAI	C_a	K	SD
I	4.50	21.667	4.815	4.672^**	3.815	8.315	1.848	0.848	1.180	C
II	12.25	243.583	19.884	23.129^**	18.884	31.134	2.542	1.542	0.649	C
III	19.00	604.000	31.789	37.709^**	30.789	49.789	2.620	1.620	0.617	C
IV	12.75	124.250	9.745	10.711^**	8.745	21.495	1.686	0.686	1.458	C
V	2.75	10.250	3.727	3.340^*	2.727	5.477	1.992	0.992	1.008	C
VI	1.25	1.583	1.267	0.327	0.267	1.517	1.213	0.213	4.688	C
VII	0.25	0.250	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.250	1.000	0.000	-	R
VIII	0.25	0.250	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.250	1.000	0.000	-	R
IX	0.50	1.000	2.000	1.225	1.000	1.500	3.000	2.000	0.500	C

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