小叶栎分布格局对末次盛冰期以来气候变化的响应

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2016.0032

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

小叶栎(Quercus chenii)是华东植物区系的代表树种, 具有很高的生态、经济价值。为重建冰期以来小叶栎地理分布格局的变迁历史、了解环境因子对潜在地理分布的制约机制, 为小叶栎种质资源保护和管理提供科学依据, 该研究基于55条分布记录和8个环境变量, 利用MaxEnt模型模拟小叶栎在末次盛冰期、全新世中期、现代和2070年(温室气体排放情景为典型浓度目标8.5)的潜在分布区, 利用多元环境相似度面和最不相似变量分析探讨气候变迁过程中环境异常区域和引起潜在地理分布改变的关键因素, 综合应用贡献率及置换重要值比较、Jackknife检验评估制约现代地理分布的主要因子, 采用响应曲线确定环境变量的适宜区间。研究结果表明: MaxEnt模型的预测准确度极高, 受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC值)达0.9869 ± 0.0045; 现代高度适宜区在安徽南部、浙江西部、江西东北部和湖北东部; 影响小叶栎地理分布的主要气候因子为气温和降水量, 气温更重要; 最干季平均气温可能是制约小叶栎向北分布的关键因素; 末次盛冰期时, 小叶栎高度适宜区位于东海大陆架内; 全新世中期适宜分布区轮廓已与现代近似; 2070年适宜分布区向北移, 高度适宜区面积增大, 与末次盛冰期、全新世中期和现代相比, 这一时期的气候异常程度最高。气温季节变化和降水季节变化可能是引起地理分布变迁的重要气候因素。

关键词: 小叶栎, MaxEnt模型, 末次盛冰期, 气候变化, 分布格局

Abstract:

Aims Quercus chenii is a representative species of the flora in East China, with high ecological and economic values. Here, we aim to simulate the changes in the distribution pattern of this tree species following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and to explore how climatic factors constrain the potential distribution, so as to provide scientific basis for protection and management of the germplasm resources in Q. chenii.
Methods Based on 55 presence point records and data on eight environmental variables, we simulated the potential distribution of Q. chenii during the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, present and the year 2070 (the scenario of greenhouse gas emission is Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) with MaxEnt model. The novel climate area and main factors influencing the changes in distribution pattern were evaluated by multivariate environmental similarity surface analysis and the most dissimilar variable analysis. The importance of environmental variables was evaluated by percent contribution, permutation importance and Jackknife test. Response curves were used to estimate the suitable value range of each variable.
Important findings The accuracy of MaxEnt model is very high, as indicated by the value of the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.9869 ± 0.0045. The highly suitable region for the present distribution covers southern Anhui, western Zhejiang, northeastern Jiangxi and eastern Hubei. The main factors affecting the potential distribution of Q. chenii are temperature and precipitation, with the former being more important. Mean temperature of the driest quarter is likely the main factor restricting Q. chenii growing in the north. During the LGM, the East China Sea Shelf occurs as the highly suitable region for the distribution of Q. chenii. In the mid-Holocene, the outline of the suitable area for the distribution of Q. chenii is similar to the present. The potential distribution region will likely move northward and experience an area expansion under the climate condition in 2070. At that time, climate anomaly will also be most severe compared to the LGM, mid-Holocene and present. Temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality may be the main climatic factors promoting changes in the distribution pattern of Q. chenii.

Key words: Quercus chenii, MaxEnt model, Last Glacial Maximum, climate change, distribution pattern

李垚, 张兴旺, 方炎明. 小叶栎分布格局对末次盛冰期以来气候变化的响应. 植物生态学报, 2016, 40(11): 1164-1178. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2016.0032

Yao LI, Xing-Wang ZHANG, Yan-Ming FANG. Responses of the distribution pattern of Quercus chenii to climate change following the Last Glacial Maximum. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2016, 40(11): 1164-1178. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2016.0032

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.17521/cjpe.2016.0032

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2016/V40/I11/1164

图/表 7

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序号 Code	居群位置 Location of populations	经度 Longitude	纬度 Latitude	来源 Source
1	安徽省太湖县天华镇 Tianhua Town, Taihu County, Anhui Province	116.13° E	30.45° N	实地调查 Field survey
2	安徽省东至县响岭村 Xiangling Village, Dongzhi County, Anhui Province	116.91° E	30.00° N	CVH PE 00296660
3	安徽省青阳县朱备镇 Zhubei Town, Qingyang County, Anhui Province	117.88° E	30.55° N	CVH NAS 00203812
4	安徽省黄山市焦村镇 Jiaocun Town, Huangshan City, Anhui Province	118.08° E	30.19° N	实地调查 Field survey
5	安徽省祁门县棕里村 Zongli Village, Qimen County, Anhui Province	117.72° E	29.85° N	CVH NAS 00203826
6	安徽省歙县 She County, Anhui Province	118.44° E	29.87° N	CVH NAS 00203796
7	安徽省休宁县齐云山 Qiyun Mountain, Xiuning County, Anhui Province	118.11° E	29.84° N	实地调查 Field survey
8	安徽省休宁县五城镇 Wucheng Town, Xiuning County, Anhui Province	118.19° E	29.61° N	CVH NAS 00203816
9	安徽省金寨县金刚台国家地质公园 Jingangtai National Geopark, Jinzhai County, Anhui Province	115.64° E	31.68° N	Fang, 2012
10	安徽省金寨县天堂寨镇 Tiantangzhai Town, Jinzhai County, Anhui Province	115.82° E	31.15° N	实地调查 Field survey
11	安徽省广德县金龙山 Jinlong Mountain, Guangde County, Anhui Province	119.21° E	30.76° N	CVH NAS 00203814
12	安徽省广德县七里冲 Qilichong, Guangde County, Anhui Province	119.22° E	30.65° N	CVH NAS 00203819
13	安徽省绩溪县华阳镇 Huayang Town, Jixi County, Anhui Province	118.60° E	30.07° N	CVH NAS 00203813
14	福建省浦城县 Pucheng County, Fujian Province	118.50° E	27.94° N	SRSPE 2151C0001H00006202
15	福建省沙县洞天岩 Dongtianyan, Sha County, Fujian Province	117.74° E	26.39° N	CVH PE 00296673
16	福建省泰宁县 Taining County, Fujian Province	115.10° E	26.73° N	CVH PE 00296672
17	河南省桐柏县太白顶 Taibaiding, Tongbai County, Henan Province	113.29° E	32.38° N	SRSPE 2151C0001400004887
18	河南省信阳市鸡公山 Jigong Mountain, Xinyang City, Henan Province	114.09° E	31.81° N	Ye et al., 2014
19	湖北省大冶市 Daye City, Hubei Province	115.00° E	30.05° N	SRSPE 2151C0001M07001199
20	湖北省武汉市珞珈山 Luojia Hill, Wuhan City, Hubei Province	114.38° E	30.54° N	CVH WUK 0310424
21	湖北省崇阳县桂花林场 Guihua Forest Farm, Chongyang County, Hubei Province	113.88° E	29.55° N	Lü et al., 2013
22	湖北省孝感市钱家垅 Qianjialong, Xiaogan City, Hubei Province	113.92° E	31.07° N	CVH LBG 00066761
23	湖南省桃源县桃花源 Taohuayuan, Taoyuan County, Hunan Province	111.44° E	28.79° N	实地调查 Field survey
24	湖南省株洲县砖桥乡 Zhuanqiao Township, Zhuzhou County, Hunan Province	113.13° E	27.40° N	实地调查 Field survey
25	湖南省宜章县栗源镇 Liyuan Town, Yizhang County, Hunan Province	112.99° E	25.21° N	实地调查 Field survey
26	江苏省南京市溧水林场 Lishui Forest Farm, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province	119.04° E	31.60° N	实地调查 Field survey
27	江苏省宜兴市磬山 Qingshan Mountain, Yixing City, Jiangsu Province	119.75° E	31.19° N	CVH NAS 00102536
28	江西省广昌县塘坊乡 Tangfang Township, Guangchang County, Jiangxi Province	116.49° E	26.62° N	CVH LBG 00018225
29	江西省乐安县茅岗村 Maogang Vallige, Le’an County, Jiangxi Province	115.91° E	27.34° N	实地调查 Field survey
30	江西省黎川县河樟村 Hezhang Vallige, Lichuan County, Jiangxi Province	116.78° E	27.04° N	CVH LBG 00018220
31	江西省南城县 Nancheng County, Jiangxi Province	116.64° E	27.56° N	CVH KUN 504150
32	江西省宜黄县 Yihuang County, Jiangxi Province	116.42° E	27.49° N	PPBC 232584
33	江西省石城县丰山乡 Fengshan Township, Shicheng County, Jiangxi Province	116.50° E	26.42° N	CVH LBG 00018202
34	江西省吉水县白沙镇 Baisha Town, Jishui County, Jiangxi Province	115.47° E	26.98° N	实地调查 Field survey
35	江西省九江市庐山区白鹿洞 Bailudong, Lushan District, Jiujiang City, Jiangxi Province	116.05° E	29.52° N	CVH LBG 00018208
附录I (续) Appendix I (continued)
序号 Code	居群位置 Location of populations	经度 Longitude	纬度 Latitude	来源 Source
36	江西省九江县岷山乡 Minshan Township, Jiujiang County, Jiangxi Province	115.66° E	29.46° N	CVH HHBG HZ003664
37	江西省彭泽县钱家湾 Qianjiawan, Pengze County, Jiangxi Province	116.75° E	30.05° N	CVH NAS 00203760
38	江西省武宁县鲁溪镇 Luxi Town, Wuning County, Jiangxi Province	115.20° E	29.50° N	实地调查 Field survey
39	江西省武宁县甫田乡 Futian Township, Wuning County, Jiangxi Province	114.88° E	29.30° N	实地调查 Field survey
40	江西省星子县温泉镇 Wenquan Town, Xingzi County, Jiangxi Province	115.90° E	29.42° N	CVH KUN 504149
41	江西省修水县 Xiushui County, Jiangxi Province	114.54° E	29.03° N	CVH NAS 00203795
42	江西省永修县 Yongxiu County, Jiangxi Province	115.62° E	29.09° N	实地调查 Field survey
43	江西省德兴市大茅山 Damao Mountain, Dexing City, Jiangxi Province	117.75° E	28.92° N	CVH LBG 00018216
44	江西省鄱阳县侯岗村 Hougang Village, Poyang County, Jiangxi Province	116.86° E	29.53° N	CVH LBG 00018224
45	江西省鄱阳县千秋河 Qianqiuhe, Poyang County, Jiangxi Province	116.88° E	29.36° N	CVH NAS 00203763
46	江西省宜丰县官山自然保护区 Guanshan Nature Reserve, Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province	114.57° E	28.50° N	CVH LBG 00018217
47	江西省婺源县鹤溪村 Hexi Village, Wuyuan County, Jiangxi Province	117.87° E	29.23° N	实地调查 Field survey
48	江西省玉山县陇首村 Longshou Village, Yushan County, Jiangxi Province	117.91° E	28.90° N	CVH LBG 00018218
49	江西省铜鼓县大沩山 Dawei Mountain, Tonggu County, Jiangxi Province	114.28° E	28.49° N	CVH LBG 00018203
50	浙江省临安市太庙山 Taimiao Mountain, Lin’an City, Zhejiang Province	119.73° E	30.24° N	SRSPE 2151C0001T00066148
51	浙江省临安市指南村 Zhinan Village, Lin’an City, Zhejiang Province	119.57° E	30.36° N	实地调查 Field survey
52	浙江省松阳县香奶山 Xiangnai Mountain, Songyang County, Zhejiang Province	119.28° E	28.40° N	SRSPE 2151C0001S60002828
53	浙江省余姚市四明山 Siming Mountain, Yuyao City, Zhejiang Province	121.12° E	29.74° N	CVH PE 00296654
54	浙江省诸暨市七家龙 Qijialong, Zhuji City, Zhejiang Province	120.37° E	29.81° N	CVH NAS 00203798
55	浙江省诸暨市外陈村 Waichen Village, Zhuji City, Zhejiang Province	120.19° E	29.66° N	CVH PE 00296650

序号 Code	居群位置 Location of populations	经度 Longitude	纬度 Latitude	来源 Source
1	安徽省太湖县天华镇 Tianhua Town, Taihu County, Anhui Province	116.13° E	30.45° N	实地调查 Field survey
2	安徽省东至县响岭村 Xiangling Village, Dongzhi County, Anhui Province	116.91° E	30.00° N	CVH PE 00296660
3	安徽省青阳县朱备镇 Zhubei Town, Qingyang County, Anhui Province	117.88° E	30.55° N	CVH NAS 00203812
4	安徽省黄山市焦村镇 Jiaocun Town, Huangshan City, Anhui Province	118.08° E	30.19° N	实地调查 Field survey
5	安徽省祁门县棕里村 Zongli Village, Qimen County, Anhui Province	117.72° E	29.85° N	CVH NAS 00203826
6	安徽省歙县 She County, Anhui Province	118.44° E	29.87° N	CVH NAS 00203796
7	安徽省休宁县齐云山 Qiyun Mountain, Xiuning County, Anhui Province	118.11° E	29.84° N	实地调查 Field survey
8	安徽省休宁县五城镇 Wucheng Town, Xiuning County, Anhui Province	118.19° E	29.61° N	CVH NAS 00203816
9	安徽省金寨县金刚台国家地质公园 Jingangtai National Geopark, Jinzhai County, Anhui Province	115.64° E	31.68° N	Fang, 2012
10	安徽省金寨县天堂寨镇 Tiantangzhai Town, Jinzhai County, Anhui Province	115.82° E	31.15° N	实地调查 Field survey
11	安徽省广德县金龙山 Jinlong Mountain, Guangde County, Anhui Province	119.21° E	30.76° N	CVH NAS 00203814
12	安徽省广德县七里冲 Qilichong, Guangde County, Anhui Province	119.22° E	30.65° N	CVH NAS 00203819
13	安徽省绩溪县华阳镇 Huayang Town, Jixi County, Anhui Province	118.60° E	30.07° N	CVH NAS 00203813
14	福建省浦城县 Pucheng County, Fujian Province	118.50° E	27.94° N	SRSPE 2151C0001H00006202
15	福建省沙县洞天岩 Dongtianyan, Sha County, Fujian Province	117.74° E	26.39° N	CVH PE 00296673
16	福建省泰宁县 Taining County, Fujian Province	115.10° E	26.73° N	CVH PE 00296672
17	河南省桐柏县太白顶 Taibaiding, Tongbai County, Henan Province	113.29° E	32.38° N	SRSPE 2151C0001400004887
18	河南省信阳市鸡公山 Jigong Mountain, Xinyang City, Henan Province	114.09° E	31.81° N	Ye et al., 2014
19	湖北省大冶市 Daye City, Hubei Province	115.00° E	30.05° N	SRSPE 2151C0001M07001199
20	湖北省武汉市珞珈山 Luojia Hill, Wuhan City, Hubei Province	114.38° E	30.54° N	CVH WUK 0310424
21	湖北省崇阳县桂花林场 Guihua Forest Farm, Chongyang County, Hubei Province	113.88° E	29.55° N	Lü et al., 2013
22	湖北省孝感市钱家垅 Qianjialong, Xiaogan City, Hubei Province	113.92° E	31.07° N	CVH LBG 00066761
23	湖南省桃源县桃花源 Taohuayuan, Taoyuan County, Hunan Province	111.44° E	28.79° N	实地调查 Field survey
24	湖南省株洲县砖桥乡 Zhuanqiao Township, Zhuzhou County, Hunan Province	113.13° E	27.40° N	实地调查 Field survey
25	湖南省宜章县栗源镇 Liyuan Town, Yizhang County, Hunan Province	112.99° E	25.21° N	实地调查 Field survey
26	江苏省南京市溧水林场 Lishui Forest Farm, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province	119.04° E	31.60° N	实地调查 Field survey
27	江苏省宜兴市磬山 Qingshan Mountain, Yixing City, Jiangsu Province	119.75° E	31.19° N	CVH NAS 00102536
28	江西省广昌县塘坊乡 Tangfang Township, Guangchang County, Jiangxi Province	116.49° E	26.62° N	CVH LBG 00018225
29	江西省乐安县茅岗村 Maogang Vallige, Le’an County, Jiangxi Province	115.91° E	27.34° N	实地调查 Field survey
30	江西省黎川县河樟村 Hezhang Vallige, Lichuan County, Jiangxi Province	116.78° E	27.04° N	CVH LBG 00018220
31	江西省南城县 Nancheng County, Jiangxi Province	116.64° E	27.56° N	CVH KUN 504150
32	江西省宜黄县 Yihuang County, Jiangxi Province	116.42° E	27.49° N	PPBC 232584
33	江西省石城县丰山乡 Fengshan Township, Shicheng County, Jiangxi Province	116.50° E	26.42° N	CVH LBG 00018202
34	江西省吉水县白沙镇 Baisha Town, Jishui County, Jiangxi Province	115.47° E	26.98° N	实地调查 Field survey
35	江西省九江市庐山区白鹿洞 Bailudong, Lushan District, Jiujiang City, Jiangxi Province	116.05° E	29.52° N	CVH LBG 00018208
附录I (续) Appendix I (continued)
序号 Code	居群位置 Location of populations	经度 Longitude	纬度 Latitude	来源 Source
36	江西省九江县岷山乡 Minshan Township, Jiujiang County, Jiangxi Province	115.66° E	29.46° N	CVH HHBG HZ003664
37	江西省彭泽县钱家湾 Qianjiawan, Pengze County, Jiangxi Province	116.75° E	30.05° N	CVH NAS 00203760
38	江西省武宁县鲁溪镇 Luxi Town, Wuning County, Jiangxi Province	115.20° E	29.50° N	实地调查 Field survey
39	江西省武宁县甫田乡 Futian Township, Wuning County, Jiangxi Province	114.88° E	29.30° N	实地调查 Field survey
40	江西省星子县温泉镇 Wenquan Town, Xingzi County, Jiangxi Province	115.90° E	29.42° N	CVH KUN 504149
41	江西省修水县 Xiushui County, Jiangxi Province	114.54° E	29.03° N	CVH NAS 00203795
42	江西省永修县 Yongxiu County, Jiangxi Province	115.62° E	29.09° N	实地调查 Field survey
43	江西省德兴市大茅山 Damao Mountain, Dexing City, Jiangxi Province	117.75° E	28.92° N	CVH LBG 00018216
44	江西省鄱阳县侯岗村 Hougang Village, Poyang County, Jiangxi Province	116.86° E	29.53° N	CVH LBG 00018224
45	江西省鄱阳县千秋河 Qianqiuhe, Poyang County, Jiangxi Province	116.88° E	29.36° N	CVH NAS 00203763
46	江西省宜丰县官山自然保护区 Guanshan Nature Reserve, Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province	114.57° E	28.50° N	CVH LBG 00018217
47	江西省婺源县鹤溪村 Hexi Village, Wuyuan County, Jiangxi Province	117.87° E	29.23° N	实地调查 Field survey
48	江西省玉山县陇首村 Longshou Village, Yushan County, Jiangxi Province	117.91° E	28.90° N	CVH LBG 00018218
49	江西省铜鼓县大沩山 Dawei Mountain, Tonggu County, Jiangxi Province	114.28° E	28.49° N	CVH LBG 00018203
50	浙江省临安市太庙山 Taimiao Mountain, Lin’an City, Zhejiang Province	119.73° E	30.24° N	SRSPE 2151C0001T00066148
51	浙江省临安市指南村 Zhinan Village, Lin’an City, Zhejiang Province	119.57° E	30.36° N	实地调查 Field survey
52	浙江省松阳县香奶山 Xiangnai Mountain, Songyang County, Zhejiang Province	119.28° E	28.40° N	SRSPE 2151C0001S60002828
53	浙江省余姚市四明山 Siming Mountain, Yuyao City, Zhejiang Province	121.12° E	29.74° N	CVH PE 00296654
54	浙江省诸暨市七家龙 Qijialong, Zhuji City, Zhejiang Province	120.37° E	29.81° N	CVH NAS 00203798
55	浙江省诸暨市外陈村 Waichen Village, Zhuji City, Zhejiang Province	120.19° E	29.66° N	CVH PE 00296650

代码 Code	环境变量 Environmental variable	单位 Unit	贡献率 Percent contribution (%)	置换重要值 Permutation importance (%)	适宜区间 Suitable range
bio9	最干季平均气温 Mean temperature of driest quarter	℃	1.5	51.0	1.0-14.9
bio4	气温季节变化(标准偏差) Temperature seasonality (standard deviation)	℃	23.3	23.0	6.7-9.6
bio18	最暖季降水量 Precipitation of warmest quarter	mm	4.8	12.1	430-830
bio15	降水季节变化(变异系数) Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation)	%	15.4	8.2	41.0-66.8
bio1	年平均气温 Annual mean temperature	℃	3.6	3.8	11.9-20.8
bio12	年降水量 Annual precipitation	mm	49.7	1.7	1 050-2 520
bio3	等温性 Isothermality	%	1.6	0.1	21.7-32.7
bio8	最湿季平均气温 Mean temperature of wettest quarter	℃	0.1	0.1	17.1-29.6

代码 Code	环境变量 Environmental variable	单位 Unit	贡献率 Percent contribution (%)	置换重要值 Permutation importance (%)	适宜区间 Suitable range
bio9	最干季平均气温 Mean temperature of driest quarter	℃	1.5	51.0	1.0-14.9
bio4	气温季节变化(标准偏差) Temperature seasonality (standard deviation)	℃	23.3	23.0	6.7-9.6
bio18	最暖季降水量 Precipitation of warmest quarter	mm	4.8	12.1	430-830
bio15	降水季节变化(变异系数) Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation)	%	15.4	8.2	41.0-66.8
bio1	年平均气温 Annual mean temperature	℃	3.6	3.8	11.9-20.8
bio12	年降水量 Annual precipitation	mm	49.7	1.7	1 050-2 520
bio3	等温性 Isothermality	%	1.6	0.1	21.7-32.7
bio8	最湿季平均气温 Mean temperature of wettest quarter	℃	0.1	0.1	17.1-29.6