基于随机森林模型的内陆干旱区植被指数变化与驱动力分析: 以北天山北坡中段为例

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2020.0111

植物生态学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (11): 1113-1126.DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2020.0111

基于随机森林模型的内陆干旱区植被指数变化与驱动力分析: 以北天山北坡中段为例

张文强¹^,², 罗格平¹^,²^,³^,^*(), 郑宏伟¹^,², 王浩⁴, HAMDI Rafiq¹^,⁵^,⁶, 何惠丽¹^,², 蔡鹏¹^,², 陈春波¹^,²

¹中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲国家重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐 830011
²中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
³中国科学院中亚生态与环境研究中心, 乌鲁木齐 830011
⁴北京师范大学环境学院, 北京 100875
⁵Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels 1180, Belgium
⁶Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium

收稿日期:2020-04-20 接受日期:2020-06-02 出版日期:2020-11-20 发布日期:2020-07-07
通讯作者: 罗格平
作者简介:*luogp@ms.xjb.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(41671108);中国科学院国际合作局对外合作重点项目(131965KYSB20160004)

Analysis of vegetation index changes and driving forces in inland arid areas based on random forest model: a case study of the middle part of northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains

ZHANG Wen-Qiang¹^,², LUO Ge-Ping¹^,²^,³^,^*(), ZHENG Hong-Wei¹^,², WANG Hao⁴, HAMDI Rafiq¹^,⁵^,⁶, HE Hui-Li¹^,², CAI Peng¹^,², CHEN Chun-Bo¹^,²

¹State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, ürümqi 830011, China
²University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
³Central Asian Center for Ecology and Environmental Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, ürümqi 830011, China
⁴School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
⁵Royal Meteorological Institute, Brussels 1180, Belgium
⁶Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Ghent 9000, Belgium

Received:2020-04-20 Accepted:2020-06-02 Online:2020-11-20 Published:2020-07-07
Contact: LUO Ge-Ping
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41671108);International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(131965KYSB20160004)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球变化背景下的干旱区植被变化受气候变化和人类活动双重影响。定量评价植被变化特征及其驱动机制, 对监测干旱区区域生态环境变化, 促进区域可持续发展有重要意义。由于复杂多样的人类活动难以量化, 有关这方面的研究多局限于植被对气候变化的响应, 而对人类活动影响考虑不足, 导致关于这方面的认识存在较大的偏差和不确定性。该文首先提出与土地利用相关的人类活动量化表征方法; 然后运用多元线性回归模型和随机森林模型中的较优模型, 分析气候变化和具体的人类活动对北天山北坡中段归一化植被指数(NDVI)的影响。主要结果: (1) 2000-2015年期间北天山北坡中段年NDVI总体呈增加趋势; 基于随机森林构建的NDVI与气候因子和人类活动的模型拟合精度明显优于多元线性回归模型, 其决定系数(R²)至少提高了24%; (2)研究期内与耕地有关的人类活动对北天山北坡中段NDVI分布及时空变化的影响呈增加的特征, 在2000-2015年期间人类活动对NDVI变化的贡献率为0.59, 超过了气候因子。该项研究为气候变化和人类活动对植被的影响研究提供了新思路, 也为干旱区生态环境保护和恢复提供了科学依据。

关键词: 归一化植被指数, 气候变化, 人类活动, 随机森林模型, 北天山北坡中段

Abstract:

Aims In the context of global change, vegetation changes in arid areas in the context of global change are both affected by climate change and human activities. Quantifying the vegetation dynamics and their driving mechanism are essential for monitoring the ecological environment change in arid areas and for promoting the sustainable development. Because of the complexity of human activities, most researches are limited to the response of normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) to climate change, while the impacts of human activities have not yet been comprehensively considered.
Methods Firstly, we proposed a quantification method to quantify the main human activities related to land use. Then, the contribution of climate change and human activities to the NDVI in the middle part of the northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains was analyzed using the multiple linear regression model and random forest model.
Important findings We found that an overall upward trend was evident in NDVI variations from 2000 to 2015. The fitting accuracy of NDVI based on the random forest model was significantly better than the multiple linear regression model with an improved R² of about 24%. The contribution of human activities related to arable land to NDVI change in the study area showed an increasing trend which was greater than climatic factors from 2000 to 2015. This study provides new insight into the effects of climate change and human activities on vegetation and a scientific basis for the protection and restoration of the ecological environment in the arid areas.

Key words: NDVI, climate change, human activities, random forest model, the middle part of northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains

张文强, 罗格平, 郑宏伟, 王浩, HAMDI Rafiq, 何惠丽, 蔡鹏, 陈春波. 基于随机森林模型的内陆干旱区植被指数变化与驱动力分析: 以北天山北坡中段为例. 植物生态学报, 2020, 44(11): 1113-1126. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2020.0111

ZHANG Wen-Qiang, LUO Ge-Ping, ZHENG Hong-Wei, WANG Hao, HAMDI Rafiq, HE Hui-Li, CAI Peng, CHEN Chun-Bo. Analysis of vegetation index changes and driving forces in inland arid areas based on random forest model: a case study of the middle part of northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2020, 44(11): 1113-1126. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2020.0111

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.17521/cjpe.2020.0111

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2020/V44/I11/1113

图/表 16

图1 北天山北坡中段研究区气象站点分布。

Fig. 1 Distribution of meteorological stations of the middle part of northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains.

表1 北天山北坡中段相关数据来源

Table 1 Data source of the middle part of northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains

数据 Data	数据类型 Data type	空间分辨率 Spatial resolution	数据时段 Acquisition time	数据来源 Data source
MODIS-NDVI	栅格 Raster	1 km	2000-2015	https://code.earthengine.google.com
Landsat TM/ETM/OLI	栅格 Raster	30 m	2000, 2005, 2010, 2015	https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov
气象数据 Meteorological data	站点 Station	-	2000-2015	中国气象科学数据共享服务网(http://data.cma.cn/)、当地气象局 China meteorological data sharing service system (http://data.cma.cn/), local weather bureau
土地利用类型 Land use type	矢量 Vector	-	2000, 2005, 2010, 2015	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所对地观测与系统模拟实验室 Earth observation and systems simulation laboratory, Xinjiang institute of ecology and geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences
放牧数据 Grazing data	栅格、站点 Raster, station	0.083 33°	2000, 2005, 2010, 2015	世界粮农组织(FAO)(http://www.fao.org/livestock-systems/en/)、2015年野外实测数据、新疆统计年鉴 Food and Agriculture Organization (http://www.fao.org/livestock-systems/en/), field data in 2015, Xinjiang statistical yearbook

表2 2000-2015年北天山北坡中段研究区归一化植被指数(NDVI)影响因子的多元线性回归系数

Table 2 Regression coefficient of each independent variable of normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) of the middle part of northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2015

自变量 Independent variable	回归系数 Regression coefficient
自变量 Independent variable	2000	2005	2010	2015
年最低气温 Annual minimum temperature	0.134	0.156	0.127	0.162
年平均气温 Annual average temperature	-0.160	-0.139	-0.122	-0.245
年最高气温 Annual maximum temperature	0.026	-0.014	-0.013	0.072
年累计降水量 Annual cumulative precipitation	0.000 2	0.000 3	0.000 03	0.000 001
耕地比例 Arable proportion	0.005	0.005	0.005	0.005
林地比例 Forest proportion	0.005	0.005	0.007	0.007
草地比例 Grassland proportion	0.002	0.001	0.001	0.001
水体比例 Water body proportion	-0.001	-0.001	-0.001	-0.002
城市比例 Urban proportion	0.003	0.002	0.002	0.002
荒漠比例 Desert proportion	0.001	0.000 1	-0.000 4	-0.000 3
放牧强度 Grazing intensity	0.054	0.038	0.053	0.044
常数项 Constant	0.617	0.983	0.981	0.634

图2 2000-2015年北天山北坡中段年最大归一化植被指数(NDVI)趋势变化(A), NDVI随海拔变化趋势(B)以及2000 (C)、2005 (D)、2010 (E)和2015年(F)的NDVI空间分布。

Fig. 2 Changes in maximum normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) trend of the middle part of northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2015 (A), changes in NDVI with altitude (B), and NDVI spatial distribution in 2000 (C), 2005 (D), 2010 (E), and 2015 (F).

图3 2000-2015年北天山北坡中段研究区站点气候因素趋势变化。A, 温度。B, 降水。C-F, 年最低气温(C)、年平均气温(D)、年最高气温(E)和年累计降水量(F)在2000 (1)、2005 (2)、2010 (3)、2015年(4)的空间分布。

Fig. 3 Changes of climatic factors of study area of the middle part of northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2015. A, Temperature. B, Precipitation. Interpolation results of annual minimum temperature (C), annual average temperature (D), annual maximum temperature (E), and annual cumulative precipitation (F) in 2000 (1), 2005 (2), 2010 (3) and 2015 (4).

图4 北天山北坡中段耕地(A)、林地(B)、草地(C)、水体(D)、城市(E)和荒漠(F)在每个像元中所占面积比例与放牧强度(G)在2000 (1)、2005 (2)、2010 (3)和2015年(4)的空间分布。放牧强度数据来源于国际粮农组织(FAO)。

Fig. 4 Proportion of arable lands (A), forest (B), grassland (C),water body (D), urban (E) and desert (F) in each pixel and grazing intensity (G) spatial distribution in the study area of the middle part of northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains in 2000 (1), 2005 (2), 2010 (3) and 2015 (4). Grazing intensity data comes from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

表3 2000-2005年北天山北坡中段土地利用转移矩阵(万km2)

Table 3 Land use transition matrix of the middle part of northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2005 (104 km2)

2000	2005						总计 Total
2000	耕地 Arable	林地 Forest	草地 Grassland	水体 Water body	城市 Urban	荒漠 Desert	总计 Total
耕地 Arable	1.568 8	0.003 8	0.040 9	0.001 1	0.010 1	0.021 6	1.646 3
林地 Forest	0.017 9	0.592 0	0.017 3	0.000 5	0.001 7	0.001 9	0.631 3
草地 Grassland	0.140 3	0.004 9	5.606 3	0.005 5	0.006 8	0.534 3	6.298 1
水体 Water body	0.001 3	0.000 1	0.003 8	0.489 3	0.000 4	0.005 0	0.499 9
城市 Urban	0.006 2	0.000 1	0.002 3	0.000 2	0.147 9	0.000 9	0.157 6
荒漠 Desert	0.056 6	0.001 5	0.027 6	0.017 7	0.011 6	5.558 6	5.673 6
总计 Total	1.791 1	0.602 4	5.698 2	0.514 3	0.178 5	6.122 3	14.906 8

表4 2000-2010年北天山北坡中段土地利用转移矩阵(万km2)

Table 4 Land use transition matrix of the middle part of northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2010 (104 km2)

2000	2010						总计 Total
2000	耕地 Arable	林地 Forest	草地 Grassland	水体 Water body	城市 Urban	荒漠 Desert	总计 Total
耕地 Arable	1.463 0	0.003 5	0.117 6	0.005 0	0.052 1	0.005 2	1.646 4
林地 Forest	0.057 8	0.208 3	0.332 1	0.003 9	0.004 5	0.023 9	0.630 5
草地 Grassland	0.511 1	0.095 7	4.663 2	0.028 6	0.041 5	0.956 1	6.296 2
水体 Water body	0.007 1	0.000 4	0.050 0	0.224 0	0.001 7	0.216 8	0.500 0
城市 Urban	0.035 5	0.000 2	0.009 5	0.000 2	0.100 1	0.012 2	0.157 7
荒漠 Desert	0.215 4	0.004 2	1.047 6	0.035 9	0.027 4	4.342 1	5.672 6
总计 Total	2.289 9	0.312 3	6.220 0	0.297 6	0.227 3	5.556 3	14.903 4

表5 2000-2015年北天山北坡中段土地利用转移矩阵(万km2)

Table 5 Land use transition matrix of the middle part of northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2015 (104 km2)

2000	2015						总计 Total
2000	耕地 Arable	林地 Forest	草地 Grassland	水体 Water body	城市 Urban	荒漠 Desert	总计 Total
耕地 Arable	1.442 8	0.003 2	0.114 7	0.004 7	0.076 4	0.004 6	1.646 4
林地 Forest	0.064 9	0.208 0	0.324 1	0.004 0	0.005 6	0.023 8	0.630 4
草地 Grassland	0.612 9	0.095 7	4.538 3	0.028 2	0.068 6	0.952 4	6.296 1
水体 Water body	0.007 7	0.000 4	0.049 8	0.222 9	0.002 3	0.216 9	0.500 0
城市 Urban	0.034 2	0.000 2	0.008 5	0.000 3	0.102 3	0.012 2	0.157 7
荒漠 Desert	0.281 5	0.004 2	0.985 1	0.036 0	0.042 0	4.323 7	5.672 5
总计 Total	2.444 0	0.311 7	6.0205	0.297 2	0.297 2	5.533 6	14.903 1

图5 归一化植被指数(NDVI)与影响因子相关分析。A, 耕地比例; AT, 年平均气温; D, 荒漠比例; F, 林地比例; G, 草地比例; GI, 放牧强度; HT, 年最高气温; LT, 年最低气温; P, 年累计降水量; U, 城市比例; W, 水体比例。

Fig. 5 Correlation coefficient between normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) and impact factors. A, arable proportion; AT, annual average temperature; D, desert proportion; F, forest proportion; G, grassland proportion; GI, grazing intensity; HT, annual maximum temperature; LT, annual minimum temperature; P, annual cumulative precipitation; U, urban proportion; W, water body proportion.

图6 多元线性回归模型(MLR)(A)和随机森林(RF)归一化植被指数(NDVI)拟合值(B)在2000 (1)、2005 (2)、2010 (3)和2015年(4)的验证散点图。MAE, 平均绝对误差; RMSE, 均方根误差。

Fig. 6 Scatter plot of normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) fitting values of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)(A) and Random Forest (RF)(B) in 2000 (1), 2005 (2), 2010 (3) and 2015 (4). MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error.

图7 2000 (A)、2005 (B)、2010 (C)和2015年(D)多元线性回归模型(MLR)和随机森林模型(RF)的归一化植被指数(NDVI)拟合值频率分布直方图。

Fig. 7 Frequency distribution histogram of normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) fitting values of Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Random Forest (RF) in 2000 (A), 2005 (B), 2010 (C) and 2015 (D).

图8 归一化植被指数(NDVI)空间分布及变化的影响因子重要性。A, 每个字母代表各因子对静态NDVI的贡献。A, 耕地比例; AT, 年平均气温; D, 荒漠比例; F, 林地比例; G, 草地比例; GI, 放牧强度; HT, 年最高气温; LT, 年最低气温。P, 年累计降水量; U, 城市比例; W, 水体比例。B, 每个字母加后缀C代表各因子的变化对动态NDVI的贡献。

Fig. 8 Importance of impact factors of spatial distribution and change of normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI). A, Contribution of each factor to static NDVI. A, arable proportion; AT, annual average temperature; D, desert proportion; F, forest proportion; G, grassland proportion; GI, grazing intensity; HT, annual maximum temperature; LT, annual minimum temperature. P, annual cumulative precipitation; U, urban proportion; W, water body proportion. B, Add the suffix C to each letter to dynamic NDVI.

表6 影响因子对归一化植被指数(NDVI)空间分布(静态)与变化(动态)的重要性统计

Table 6 Important statistics of the independent variables for spatial distribution (static) and change (dynamic) of normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI)

	对静态NDVI的贡献率 Contribution to static NDVI				对NDVI变化的贡献率 Contribution to dynamic NDVI
	2000	2005	2010	2015	2000-2005	2000-2010	2000-2015
气候因子 Climate factor	0.74	0.69	0.67	0.63	0.71	0.55	0.41
人类活动 Human activity	0.26	0.31	0.33	0.37	0.29	0.35	0.59

表7 归一化植被指数(NDVI)拟合值区域差异

Table 7 Spatial difference of normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) predicted value

	分级标准 Rule (%)	NDVI				NDVI变化 NDVI change
	分级标准 Rule (%)	2000	2005	2010	2015	2000-2005	2000-2010	2000-2015
高估区 Overrated	<-5	16.70	17.72	15.28	13.54	1.71	2.85	3.78
准确区 Accurate	-5-5	65.73	64.30	68.69	71.68	96.28	93.76	92.01
低估区 Underrated	>5	17.57	17.98	16.03	14.78	2.00	3.39	4.21

图9 2000 (A)、2005 (B)、2010 (C)、2015 (D)、2000-2005 (E)、2000-2010 (F)和2000-2015年(G)北天山北坡中段研究区归一化植被指数(NDVI)拟合值区域差异。

Fig. 9 Spatial difference of the normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) predicted values in 2000 (A), 2005 (B), 2010 (C), 2015 (D), 2000-2005 (E), 2000-2010 (F), and 2000-2015 (G) in study area of the middle part of northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains.

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基于随机森林模型的内陆干旱区植被指数变化与驱动力分析: 以北天山北坡中段为例

Analysis of vegetation index changes and driving forces in inland arid areas based on random forest model: a case study of the middle part of northern slope of the north Tianshan Mountains

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