气候变暖背景下青藏高原草本植物物候变化空间换时间预测

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2019.0308

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变暖背景下的植物物候变化广受关注, 然而常用的植物物候变化预测模型未充分考虑植物对环境的适应性, 给预测结果带来了较大的不确定性。该文基于2002-2011年青藏高原10个站点的地面物候观测资料以及年平均气温数据, 对空间换时间模型预测车前(Plantago asiatica)和蒲公英(Taraxacum mongolicum)各主要物候事件(展叶始期、开花始期和黄枯普遍期)变化的可行性及其在升温背景下的变化规律进行了分析。首先利用不同海拔高度的气温和物候事件分别与地理因子(经度、纬度和海拔)建立多元线性回归模型, 然后在此基础上剔除经度和纬度的影响, 单独考察海拔变化所引起的气温与植物物候变化, 最后以海拔高度作为桥梁来考察物候变化与温度变化的关系。结果表明, 采用各站点对应的海拔高度来模拟年平均气温空间差异的R²均大于0.89, 表明海拔梯度可以用来反映时间尺度下的年际温度变化; 车前和蒲公英各物候事件发生日期拟合值均与海拔高度变化关系显著, R²均大于0.70, 表明海拔变化是影响它们各物候事件变化的主要地理因子; 在物候事件发生日期拟合值和年平均气温拟合值的回归方程中, R²均大于0.93, 说明基于不同海拔高度模拟得到的年平均气温变化可以对时间尺度上车前和蒲公英的物候事件变化进行预测。空间换时间预测表明, 温度每升高1 ℃, 车前展叶始期和开花始期分别提前5.1和5.4 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟4.8 d; 蒲公英展叶始期和开花始期分别提前6.5和7.8 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟6.7 d。

关键词: 青藏高原, 气候变暖, 车前, 蒲公英, 空间换时间, 物候

Abstract:

Aims To analyse the feasibility of space-for-time method in predicting phenology shifts of Plantago asiatica and Taraxacum mongolicum on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, as well as revealing the phenological changes of the two herbaceous plants under climate warming.
Methods The observed phenological data for Plantago asiatica and Taraxacum mongolicum from 10 sites on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau during 2002-2011, as well as the meteorological data (i.e., daily mean air temperature) were collected. First, multiple linear regression models were bulit between geographic factors (longitude, latitude and altitude) and phenological events/annual mean temperature at different altitude gradients. Then, the longitude and latitude were kept to be unchanged, and the unary linear regression models between phenological events/annual mean temperature and altitude were built. Finally, the altitude was used as the “bridge” to indicate the relationship between the change of phenological events and the change of annual mean temperature.
Important findings The temperature decreased with the increasing altitude (R² > 0.89, p < 0.05), illustrating that changes of altitude gradients can be used to substitute for changes of annual mean temperature. The change in the simulated phenological events of the two herbaceous plants all showed a strong dependence on the change of altitude (R² > 0.70, p < 0.05), which contributed the most among the geographic factors. Strong dependences were observed between the simulated phenological events and the simulated annual mean temperature (R² > 0.93, p < 0.05), showing that phenological events could be predicted by the annual mean temperature with the space-for- time method. For Plantago asiatica, the first leaf date (FLD) and the first flowering date (FFD) occurred earlier with increasing annual mean temperature as 5.1 and 5.4 days per ℃, respectively, while the common leaf coloring date (LCD) occurred later as 4.8 days per ℃. The FLD and FFD of Taraxacum mongolicum advanced by 6.5 days and 7.8 days per ℃ of increase in the mean annual temperature while the LCD delayed by 6.7 days per ℃.

Key words: Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, climate warming, Plantago asiatica, Taraxacum mongolicum, space-for-time method, phenology

李雪莹, 朱文泉, 李培先, 谢志英, 赵涔良. 气候变暖背景下青藏高原草本植物物候变化空间换时间预测. 植物生态学报, 2020, 44(7): 742-751. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2019.0308

LI Xue-Ying, ZHU Wen-Quan, LI Pei-Xian, XIE Zhi-Ying, ZHAO Cen-Liang. Predicting phenology shifts of herbaceous plants on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under climate warming with the space-for-time method. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2020, 44(7): 742-751. DOI: 10.17521/cjpe.2019.0308

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.17521/cjpe.2019.0308

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2020/V44/I7/742

图/表 8

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站点 Site	经度 Longitude (E)	纬度 Latitude (N)	海拔 Altitude (m)	车前观测数据时间跨度 Time span of observed data for P. asiatica	蒲公英观测数据时间跨度 Time span of observed data for T. mongolicum
门源 Menyuan	101.62°	37.38°	2 850	1987-2011	2001-2011
海北牧试 Haibeimushi	100.85°	36.95°	3 140	1997-2011	1997-2011
共和 Gonghe	100.62°	36.27°	2 840	1991-2011	1991-2011
兴海 Xinghai	99.98°	35.58°	3 320	2000-2011	2000-2011
曲麻莱 Qumarlêb	95.78°	34.13°	4 180	1997-2011	1997-2011
甘德 Gadê	99.90°	33.97°	4 050	1990-2011	1990-2011
若尔盖 Zoigê	102.97°	33.58°	3 440	1983-2011	1983-2011
稻城 Daocheng	100.30°	29.05°	3 730	2002-2011	2002-2011
日喀则 Xigazê	88.88°	29.25°	3 840	2000-2011	2000-2011
泽当 Zêtang	91.77°	29.25°	3 550	2000-2011	2000-2011

站点 Site	经度 Longitude (E)	纬度 Latitude (N)	海拔 Altitude (m)	车前观测数据时间跨度 Time span of observed data for P. asiatica	蒲公英观测数据时间跨度 Time span of observed data for T. mongolicum
门源 Menyuan	101.62°	37.38°	2 850	1987-2011	2001-2011
海北牧试 Haibeimushi	100.85°	36.95°	3 140	1997-2011	1997-2011
共和 Gonghe	100.62°	36.27°	2 840	1991-2011	1991-2011
兴海 Xinghai	99.98°	35.58°	3 320	2000-2011	2000-2011
曲麻莱 Qumarlêb	95.78°	34.13°	4 180	1997-2011	1997-2011
甘德 Gadê	99.90°	33.97°	4 050	1990-2011	1990-2011
若尔盖 Zoigê	102.97°	33.58°	3 440	1983-2011	1983-2011
稻城 Daocheng	100.30°	29.05°	3 730	2002-2011	2002-2011
日喀则 Xigazê	88.88°	29.25°	3 840	2000-2011	2000-2011
泽当 Zêtang	91.77°	29.25°	3 550	2000-2011	2000-2011

年份 Year	R²	a (℃·°^-1)	b (℃·°^-1)	c (℃·m^-1)	d
2002	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	88.4
2003	0.90^*	-0.2	-1.1^*	-0.006 3^*	83.8
2004	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 3^*	88.9
2005	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 6^*	91.3
2006	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 4^*	89.8
2007	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	95.8
2008	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	91.6
2009	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.2^*	-0.006 4^*	92.8
2010	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	93.6
2011	0.89^*	-0.3	-1.1	-0.006 3^*	87.1

年份 Year	R²	a (℃·°^-1)	b (℃·°^-1)	c (℃·m^-1)	d
2002	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	88.4
2003	0.90^*	-0.2	-1.1^*	-0.006 3^*	83.8
2004	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 3^*	88.9
2005	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 6^*	91.3
2006	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 4^*	89.8
2007	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	95.8
2008	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	91.6
2009	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.2^*	-0.006 4^*	92.8
2010	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	93.6
2011	0.89^*	-0.3	-1.1	-0.006 3^*	87.1

年份 Year	车前展叶始期 FLD of P. asiatica								蒲公英展叶始期 FLD of T. mongolicum
年份 Year	R²	a (d·°^-1)	b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d		R²	a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d
2002	0.95^*	1.1	6.3^*		0.033 8^*		-342.3		0.95^*	1.2		6.2^*		0.043 8^*		-382.8
2003	0.98^*	0.7	6.8^*		0.036 2^*		-318.3		1.00^*	0.9^*		6.3^*		0.045 2^*		-362.8
2004	0.95^*	1.0	6.9^*		0.036 7^*		-355.0		0.92^*	1.3		6.1^*		0.041 2^*		-383.3
2005	0.90^*	1.0	5.9^*		0.032 9^*		-320.1		0.92^*	1.7		6.1^*		0.043 2^*		-428.5
2006	0.96^*	1.5^*	6.7^*		0.037 3^*		-404.9		0.92^*	2.0^*		6.6^*		0.044 2^*		-470.6
2007	0.91^*	1.6	5.9^*		0.040 0^*		-398.6		0.93^*	1.9^*		5.7^*		0.047 8^*		-448.9
2008	0.85^*	1.5	5.0^*		0.032 7^*		-327.8		0.99^*	1.4^*		5.7^*		0.045 0^*		-380.9
2009	0.93^*	1.6^*	5.0^*		0.032 9^*		-340.4		0.91^*	2.0^*		4.3^*		0.039 4^*		-385.8
2010	0.83^*	0.6	4.5^*		0.030 5^*		-212.2		0.85^*	0.9		4.3^*		0.041 5^*		-274.2
2011	0.67	0.7	4.5^*		0.025 1		-199.5		0.70^*	0.9		4.3		0.037 3^*		-254.7
年份 Year	车前开花始期 FFD of P. asiatica								蒲公英开花始期 FFD of T. mongolicum
年份 Year	R²	a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d	R²		a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d
2002	0.76^*	-0.1		3.9^*		0.023 2^*		-45.1	0.88^*		0.5		6.9^*		0.047 9^*		-306.5
2003	0.96^*	0.9		5.3^*		0.032 2^*		-226.1	0.89^*		0.9		6.5^*		0.048 8^*		-334.9
2004	0.95^*	0.8		5.1^*		0.029 8^*		-198.4	0.88^*		2.0		6.5^*		-0.059 6^*		-480.5
2005	0.92^*	1.4^*		3.9^*		0.030 8^*		-215.4	0.91^*		1.7		6.2^*		0.051 7^*		-418.4
2006	0.95^*	1.5^*		4.7^*		0.030 2^*		-248.2	0.89^*		2.3		5.7^*		0.046 7^*		-439.9
2007	0.96^*	2.8^*		2.8^*		0.034 7^*		-330.0	0.91^*		2.1^*		5.5^*		0.054 8^*		-440.4
2008	0.93^*	2.2^*		6.7^*		0.054 7^*		-475.7	0.98^*		3.0^*		4.9^*		0.058 8^*		-523.0
2009	0.83^*	1.9		5.5^*		0.044 6^*		-367.8	0.94^*		2.9^*		3.7^*		0.057 5^*		-470.9
2010	0.73^*	2.7		4.0		0.040 2^*		-378.8	0.89^*		1.6		4.8^*		0.040 2^*		-313.3
2011	0.77^*	2.0		4.8^*		0.037 5^*		-328.6	0.83^*		1.2		6.5^*		0.049 6^*		-360.7
年份 Year	车前黄枯普遍期 LCD of P. asiatica								蒲公英黄枯普遍期 LCD of T. mongolicum
年份 Year	R²	a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d	R²		a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d
2002	0.82^*	-2.7^*		-4.0^*		-0.035 8^*		803.2	0.80^*		-2.3		-4.7^*		-0.048 1^*		825.3
2003	0.55	-1.7		-2.9		-0.028 4		646.4	0.74^*		-3.2		-2.9		-0.041 7^*		847.7
2004	0.79^*	-1.3		-3.1^*		-0.020 5^*		593.3	0.71^*		-2.7		-3.2		-0.035 3^*		781.8
2005	0.87^*	-1.2		-4.4^*		-0.031 6^*		666.8	0.86^*		-1.9^*		-4.4^*		-0.042 9^*		769.7
2006	0.84^*	-1.0		-3.8^*		-0.026 6^*		596.2	0.91^*		-2.0^*		-3.9^*		-0.043 6^*		762.4
2007	0.90^*	-1.9^*		-4.1^*		-0.034 8^*		729.8	0.89^*		-2.4^*		-4.4^*		-0.048 7^*		836.1
2008	0.79^*	-2.5^*		-1.8		-0.029 5^*		693.2	0.78^*		-3.0^*		-1.7		-0.039 6^*		775.7
2009	0.96^*	-2.7^*		-3.1^*		-0.031 2^*		763.4	0.90^*		-2.6^*		-4.2^*		-0.044 4^*		831.6
2010	0.91^*	-3.6^*		-2.6		-0.040 3^*		874.7	0.93^*		-3.8^*		-3.0^*		-0.048 3^*		935.5
2011	0.91^*	-2.5^*		-4.0^*		-0.038 6^*		801.5	0.95^*		-3.4^*		-5.2^*		-0.047 4^*		961.1