Predicting phenology shifts of herbaceous plants on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under climate warming with the space-for-time method

doi:10.17521/cjpe.2019.0308

Abstract

Abstract:

Aims To analyse the feasibility of space-for-time method in predicting phenology shifts of Plantago asiatica and Taraxacum mongolicum on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, as well as revealing the phenological changes of the two herbaceous plants under climate warming.
Methods The observed phenological data for Plantago asiatica and Taraxacum mongolicum from 10 sites on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau during 2002-2011, as well as the meteorological data (i.e., daily mean air temperature) were collected. First, multiple linear regression models were bulit between geographic factors (longitude, latitude and altitude) and phenological events/annual mean temperature at different altitude gradients. Then, the longitude and latitude were kept to be unchanged, and the unary linear regression models between phenological events/annual mean temperature and altitude were built. Finally, the altitude was used as the “bridge” to indicate the relationship between the change of phenological events and the change of annual mean temperature.
Important findings The temperature decreased with the increasing altitude (R² > 0.89, p < 0.05), illustrating that changes of altitude gradients can be used to substitute for changes of annual mean temperature. The change in the simulated phenological events of the two herbaceous plants all showed a strong dependence on the change of altitude (R² > 0.70, p < 0.05), which contributed the most among the geographic factors. Strong dependences were observed between the simulated phenological events and the simulated annual mean temperature (R² > 0.93, p < 0.05), showing that phenological events could be predicted by the annual mean temperature with the space-for- time method. For Plantago asiatica, the first leaf date (FLD) and the first flowering date (FFD) occurred earlier with increasing annual mean temperature as 5.1 and 5.4 days per ℃, respectively, while the common leaf coloring date (LCD) occurred later as 4.8 days per ℃. The FLD and FFD of Taraxacum mongolicum advanced by 6.5 days and 7.8 days per ℃ of increase in the mean annual temperature while the LCD delayed by 6.7 days per ℃.

Key words: Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, climate warming, Plantago asiatica, Taraxacum mongolicum, space-for-time method, phenology

LI Xue-Ying, ZHU Wen-Quan, LI Pei-Xian, XIE Zhi-Ying, ZHAO Cen-Liang. Predicting phenology shifts of herbaceous plants on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under climate warming with the space-for-time method[J]. Chin J Plant Ecol, 2020, 44(7): 742-751.

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https://www.plant-ecology.com/EN/Y2020/V44/I7/742

Figures/Tables 8

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站点 Site	经度 Longitude (E)	纬度 Latitude (N)	海拔 Altitude (m)	车前观测数据时间跨度 Time span of observed data for P. asiatica	蒲公英观测数据时间跨度 Time span of observed data for T. mongolicum
门源 Menyuan	101.62°	37.38°	2 850	1987-2011	2001-2011
海北牧试 Haibeimushi	100.85°	36.95°	3 140	1997-2011	1997-2011
共和 Gonghe	100.62°	36.27°	2 840	1991-2011	1991-2011
兴海 Xinghai	99.98°	35.58°	3 320	2000-2011	2000-2011
曲麻莱 Qumarlêb	95.78°	34.13°	4 180	1997-2011	1997-2011
甘德 Gadê	99.90°	33.97°	4 050	1990-2011	1990-2011
若尔盖 Zoigê	102.97°	33.58°	3 440	1983-2011	1983-2011
稻城 Daocheng	100.30°	29.05°	3 730	2002-2011	2002-2011
日喀则 Xigazê	88.88°	29.25°	3 840	2000-2011	2000-2011
泽当 Zêtang	91.77°	29.25°	3 550	2000-2011	2000-2011

站点 Site	经度 Longitude (E)	纬度 Latitude (N)	海拔 Altitude (m)	车前观测数据时间跨度 Time span of observed data for P. asiatica	蒲公英观测数据时间跨度 Time span of observed data for T. mongolicum
门源 Menyuan	101.62°	37.38°	2 850	1987-2011	2001-2011
海北牧试 Haibeimushi	100.85°	36.95°	3 140	1997-2011	1997-2011
共和 Gonghe	100.62°	36.27°	2 840	1991-2011	1991-2011
兴海 Xinghai	99.98°	35.58°	3 320	2000-2011	2000-2011
曲麻莱 Qumarlêb	95.78°	34.13°	4 180	1997-2011	1997-2011
甘德 Gadê	99.90°	33.97°	4 050	1990-2011	1990-2011
若尔盖 Zoigê	102.97°	33.58°	3 440	1983-2011	1983-2011
稻城 Daocheng	100.30°	29.05°	3 730	2002-2011	2002-2011
日喀则 Xigazê	88.88°	29.25°	3 840	2000-2011	2000-2011
泽当 Zêtang	91.77°	29.25°	3 550	2000-2011	2000-2011

年份 Year	R²	a (℃·°^-1)	b (℃·°^-1)	c (℃·m^-1)	d
2002	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	88.4
2003	0.90^*	-0.2	-1.1^*	-0.006 3^*	83.8
2004	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 3^*	88.9
2005	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 6^*	91.3
2006	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 4^*	89.8
2007	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	95.8
2008	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	91.6
2009	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.2^*	-0.006 4^*	92.8
2010	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	93.6
2011	0.89^*	-0.3	-1.1	-0.006 3^*	87.1

年份 Year	R²	a (℃·°^-1)	b (℃·°^-1)	c (℃·m^-1)	d
2002	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	88.4
2003	0.90^*	-0.2	-1.1^*	-0.006 3^*	83.8
2004	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 3^*	88.9
2005	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 6^*	91.3
2006	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 4^*	89.8
2007	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	95.8
2008	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	91.6
2009	0.90^*	-0.3	-1.2^*	-0.006 4^*	92.8
2010	0.91^*	-0.3	-1.1^*	-0.006 7^*	93.6
2011	0.89^*	-0.3	-1.1	-0.006 3^*	87.1

年份 Year	车前展叶始期 FLD of P. asiatica								蒲公英展叶始期 FLD of T. mongolicum
年份 Year	R²	a (d·°^-1)	b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d		R²	a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d
2002	0.95^*	1.1	6.3^*		0.033 8^*		-342.3		0.95^*	1.2		6.2^*		0.043 8^*		-382.8
2003	0.98^*	0.7	6.8^*		0.036 2^*		-318.3		1.00^*	0.9^*		6.3^*		0.045 2^*		-362.8
2004	0.95^*	1.0	6.9^*		0.036 7^*		-355.0		0.92^*	1.3		6.1^*		0.041 2^*		-383.3
2005	0.90^*	1.0	5.9^*		0.032 9^*		-320.1		0.92^*	1.7		6.1^*		0.043 2^*		-428.5
2006	0.96^*	1.5^*	6.7^*		0.037 3^*		-404.9		0.92^*	2.0^*		6.6^*		0.044 2^*		-470.6
2007	0.91^*	1.6	5.9^*		0.040 0^*		-398.6		0.93^*	1.9^*		5.7^*		0.047 8^*		-448.9
2008	0.85^*	1.5	5.0^*		0.032 7^*		-327.8		0.99^*	1.4^*		5.7^*		0.045 0^*		-380.9
2009	0.93^*	1.6^*	5.0^*		0.032 9^*		-340.4		0.91^*	2.0^*		4.3^*		0.039 4^*		-385.8
2010	0.83^*	0.6	4.5^*		0.030 5^*		-212.2		0.85^*	0.9		4.3^*		0.041 5^*		-274.2
2011	0.67	0.7	4.5^*		0.025 1		-199.5		0.70^*	0.9		4.3		0.037 3^*		-254.7
年份 Year	车前开花始期 FFD of P. asiatica								蒲公英开花始期 FFD of T. mongolicum
年份 Year	R²	a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d	R²		a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d
2002	0.76^*	-0.1		3.9^*		0.023 2^*		-45.1	0.88^*		0.5		6.9^*		0.047 9^*		-306.5
2003	0.96^*	0.9		5.3^*		0.032 2^*		-226.1	0.89^*		0.9		6.5^*		0.048 8^*		-334.9
2004	0.95^*	0.8		5.1^*		0.029 8^*		-198.4	0.88^*		2.0		6.5^*		-0.059 6^*		-480.5
2005	0.92^*	1.4^*		3.9^*		0.030 8^*		-215.4	0.91^*		1.7		6.2^*		0.051 7^*		-418.4
2006	0.95^*	1.5^*		4.7^*		0.030 2^*		-248.2	0.89^*		2.3		5.7^*		0.046 7^*		-439.9
2007	0.96^*	2.8^*		2.8^*		0.034 7^*		-330.0	0.91^*		2.1^*		5.5^*		0.054 8^*		-440.4
2008	0.93^*	2.2^*		6.7^*		0.054 7^*		-475.7	0.98^*		3.0^*		4.9^*		0.058 8^*		-523.0
2009	0.83^*	1.9		5.5^*		0.044 6^*		-367.8	0.94^*		2.9^*		3.7^*		0.057 5^*		-470.9
2010	0.73^*	2.7		4.0		0.040 2^*		-378.8	0.89^*		1.6		4.8^*		0.040 2^*		-313.3
2011	0.77^*	2.0		4.8^*		0.037 5^*		-328.6	0.83^*		1.2		6.5^*		0.049 6^*		-360.7
年份 Year	车前黄枯普遍期 LCD of P. asiatica								蒲公英黄枯普遍期 LCD of T. mongolicum
年份 Year	R²	a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d	R²		a (d·°^-1)		b (d·°^-1)		c (d·m^-1)		d
2002	0.82^*	-2.7^*		-4.0^*		-0.035 8^*		803.2	0.80^*		-2.3		-4.7^*		-0.048 1^*		825.3
2003	0.55	-1.7		-2.9		-0.028 4		646.4	0.74^*		-3.2		-2.9		-0.041 7^*		847.7
2004	0.79^*	-1.3		-3.1^*		-0.020 5^*		593.3	0.71^*		-2.7		-3.2		-0.035 3^*		781.8
2005	0.87^*	-1.2		-4.4^*		-0.031 6^*		666.8	0.86^*		-1.9^*		-4.4^*		-0.042 9^*		769.7
2006	0.84^*	-1.0		-3.8^*		-0.026 6^*		596.2	0.91^*		-2.0^*		-3.9^*		-0.043 6^*		762.4
2007	0.90^*	-1.9^*		-4.1^*		-0.034 8^*		729.8	0.89^*		-2.4^*		-4.4^*		-0.048 7^*		836.1
2008	0.79^*	-2.5^*		-1.8		-0.029 5^*		693.2	0.78^*		-3.0^*		-1.7		-0.039 6^*		775.7
2009	0.96^*	-2.7^*		-3.1^*		-0.031 2^*		763.4	0.90^*		-2.6^*		-4.2^*		-0.044 4^*		831.6
2010	0.91^*	-3.6^*		-2.6		-0.040 3^*		874.7	0.93^*		-3.8^*		-3.0^*		-0.048 3^*		935.5
2011	0.91^*	-2.5^*		-4.0^*		-0.038 6^*		801.5	0.95^*		-3.4^*		-5.2^*		-0.047 4^*		961.1