辽河三角洲植被生产功能的年际变化及其驱动 因子分析

doi:10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.07.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于辽河三角洲14年的水稻(Oryza sativa)与玉米(Zea mays)产量、42年的芦苇(Phragmites australis)产量及相应的气候、农业人口、灌溉和施肥等资料, 主要利用主成分分析、简单相关分析和偏相关分析, 阐述了辽河三角洲3种主要植被生产功能的年际变化及其驱动因子。结果表明: 玉米和水稻的单产呈弱上升趋势, 但年际间波动较大; 芦苇单产则呈显著上升趋势, 但年际间波动不大。气候因子是玉米和水稻产量年际间变化的主要驱动因子, 而人为因子(农业人口、灌溉和施肥)的作用不明显; 气候因子和人为因子(灌溉)均明显影响芦苇产量的年际变化。但驱动辽河三角洲3种主要植被(玉米、水稻和芦苇)生产功能年际波动的主导气候因子并不相同, 分别是年日照数、年降水量和年蒸发量。

关键词: 气候变化, 粮食产量, 辽河三角洲, 生产力, 植被

Abstract:

Aims Our objectives were to illustrate inter-annual change of the productivity of three main vegetation types in the Liaohe Delta and to discover the driving factors resulting in the change of productivity.

Methods Principal component analysis, Pearson correlation analysis and partial correlation analysis were applied, based on data for 14-year yield of maize (Zea mays) and rice (Oryza sativa), 42-year productivity of common reed (Phragmites australis), and data on climatic factors, agricultural population, irrigation area and fertilizer use in the Liaohe Delta.

Important findings A slight increased yield of rice and maize was shown, but with obvious inter-annual fluctuation. However, a large increased yield of common reed was shown, but with slight inter-annual fluctuation. Climatic factors played an important role as the key factors for the inter-annual fluctuation of yield of maize and rice, while human factors (agricultural population, irrigation and fertilization) played a relatively small role. Both climatic factors and human factors (irrigation) played an important role in the inter-annual fluctuation of yield of common reed. Nevertheless, the three dominant vegetation types had different driving factors for their fluctuating yield. Annual hours of sunshine, annual precipitation and annual evaporation were identified as the mainly driving factors for the fluctuating yield of maize, rice and common reed, respectively.

Key words: climatic change, grain yield, Liaohe Delta, productivity, vegetation

汲玉河, 周广胜. 辽河三角洲植被生产功能的年际变化及其驱动因子分析. 植物生态学报, 2010, 34(7): 792-799. DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.07.004

JI Yu-He, ZHOU Guang-Sheng. Inter-annual change of vegetation productivity and its driving factors in the Liaohe Delta, northeastern China. Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology, 2010, 34(7): 792-799. DOI: 10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.07.004

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链接本文: https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/10.3773/j.issn.1005-264x.2010.07.004

https://www.plant-ecology.com/CN/Y2010/V34/I7/792

图/表 12

表1 各地区属于辽河三角洲的面积与该地区的面积比

Table 1 The area percentage of each region falling into the Liaohe Delta

地区 Region	盘锦 Panjin	锦州 Jinzhou	营口 Yingkou	鞍山 Anshan	沈阳 Shenyang	辽阳 Liaoyang
百分比 Percentage	100%	35.4%	27.7%	15.4%	0.5%	0.2%

表2 从影响玉米产量的人为因子中提取的主成分特征值和贡献率

Table 2 The eigenvalue and contribution rate of principal component extracting from anthropic factors which effect the yield of maize

主成分 Principal component	特征值 Eigenvalue	贡献率 Contribution (%)	累计贡献率 Accumulative contribution (%)
1	1.796	59.844	59.844
2	1.047	34.894	94.739
3	0.158	5.261	100

表3 从影响玉米产量的人为因子中提取的主成分载荷和主成分特征向量

Table 3 The loading and eigenvector of principal component extracting from anthropic factors which effect the yield of maize

	主成分载荷 Principal component loading		特征向量 Eigenvector
	L₁	L₂	T₁	T₂
农业人口 Agricultural population	-0.961	-0.005	-0.717	-0.005
玉米灌溉面积 Irrigation area of maize	0.630	0.752	0.470	0.735
玉米施肥量 Fertilizer for maize	0.689	-0.694	0.514	-0.678

图1 1992-2005年间辽河三角洲玉米粮食单产(kg·hm-2)的年际变化(辽宁省统计局, 1993-2006)。

Fig. 1 The inter-annual change of maize yield per unit (kg·hm-2) in the Liaohe Delta during 1992-2005 (Liaoning Provincial Bureau of Statistics, 1993-2006).

图2 1992-2005年间辽河三角洲水稻粮食单产(kg·hm-2)的年际变化(辽宁省统计局, 1993-2006)。

Fig. 2 The inter-annual change of rice yield per unit (kg·hm-2) in the Liaohe Delta during 1993-2005 (Liaoning Provincial Bureau of Statistics, 1993-2006).

图3 1949-1990年辽河三角洲5个农场的芦苇单产的年际变化(kg·hm-2) (盘锦市人民政府地方志办公室, 1998)。

Fig. 3 The inter-annual change of reed yield per unit in the five reed farms in the Liaohe Delta during 1949-1990 (kg·hm-2) (Panjin Municipal Government Office of local Chorography, 1998).

表4 1992-2005年玉米单产与影响玉米产量的人为因素综合得分、气候因子综合得分的皮尔逊相关关系

Table 4 The Pearson correlation between maize yield per unit and the synthesized score of climatic factors, and the synthesized score of human factors effected maize during 1992-2005

	皮尔逊相关 Pearson correlation	p	N
人为综合因子得分 Synthesized score of human factors	-0.019	0.947	14
气候因子综合得分 Synthesized score of climatic factors	-0.279	0.334	14

表5 1992-2005年水稻单产与影响水稻产量的人为因素综合得分、气候因子综合得分的皮尔逊相关关系

Table 5 The Pearson correlation between rice yield per unit and the synthesized score of climatic factors, and the synthesized score of human factors effected rice during 1992-2005

	皮尔逊相关 Pearson correlation	p	N
人为因子综合得分 Synthesized score of human factors	-0.046	0.876	14
气候因子综合得分 Synthesized score of climatic factors	-0.537*	0.048	14

表6 1992-2005年玉米单产与气候因子的偏相关关系

Table 6 The partial correlation between climatic factors and maize yield per unit during 1992-2005

	相关系数 r	显著度 p	自由度 df	控制变量 Control variable
年日照数 Annual hours of sunshine (Ann_shine)	-0.555	0.096	8	Ann_preci, Frost free, Ann_evap, Ann_temp
年降水量 Annual precipitation (Ann_preci)	-0.431	0.213	8	Ann_shine, Frost free, Ann_evap, Ann_temp
无霜期 Frost free	-0.075	0.837	8	Ann_shine, Ann_preci, Ann_evap, Ann_temp
年蒸发量 Annual evaporation (Ann_evap)	0.024	0.948	8	Ann_shine, Ann_preci, Frost free, Ann_temp
年平均温度 Mean annual temperature (Ann_temp)	0.109	0.764	8	Ann_shine, Ann_preci, Frost free, Ann_evap

表7 1992-2005年水稻单产与气候因子的偏相关关系

Table 7 The partial correlation between climatic factors and rice yield per unit during 1992-2005

	相关系数 r	显著度 p	自由度 df	控制变量 Control variable
年降水量 Annual precipitation (Ann_preci)	-0.666	0.035	8	Ann_shine, Frost free, Ann_evap, Ann_temp
年日照数 Annual hours of sunshine (Ann_shine)	-0.430	0.215	8	Ann_preci, Frost free, Ann_evap, Ann_temp
年平均温度 Mean annual temperature (Ann_temp)	0.058	0.874	8	Ann_shine, Ann_preci, Frost free, Ann_evap
年蒸发量 Annual evaporation (Ann_evap)	0.077	0.832	8	Ann_shine, Ann_preci, Frost free, Ann_temp
无霜期 Frost free	0.211	0.559	8	Ann_shine, Ann_preci, Ann_evap, Ann_temp

图4 1949-1990年辽河三角洲5个芦苇农场的芦苇总产量和灌溉面积、苇田面积(盘锦市人民政府地方志办公室, 1998)。

Fig. 4 The irrigation area, reed area and total yield of the five reed farms in the Liaohe Delta during 1949-1990 (Panjin Municipal Government Office of local Chorography, 1998).

表8 1958-1990年5个芦苇农场的芦苇单产与大洼县气候因子的相关关系

Table 8 The correlation between climatic factors in the Dawa county and reed yield per unit at the five reed farms during 1958-1990

	年平均温度 Ann_temp (℃)	年降水量 Ann_preci (mm)	年蒸发量 Ann_evap (mm)	年日照数 Ann_shine (h)	无霜期 Frost free (d)
皮尔逊相关(r) Pearson correlation	0.348	0.79	-0.979	-0.775	0.364
p	0.5	0.062	0.001	0.07	0.478
N	6	6	6	6	6

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